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All right. Good afternoon everyone. My name is Alexander Paddington.
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I'm a managing director and pcartner at Boston Consulting Group. It's great.
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I hear there's a super long line,
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so I hope the content lives up to the full room here.
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I'm very excited today to share some of our research of what consumers are
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saying and what they think and feel about agentic commerce.
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What are the real barriers to adoption and what it takes to unlock that?
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We're going to dive in deep and really think about what do customers care about.
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So this is not about products.
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We're not going to be talking about the newest lineup.
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We're going to talk about what actually customers care about and what it takes
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to win them over. Now, if you look at the quote here, Bret Taylor,
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he's the chair of OpenAI. He said, "For every company,
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AI agents will be their most important digital interface,
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just as important as a website or app."
I would argue yes,
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but first we need to win consumer trust before we could get there.
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And how we win consumer trust is the focus for today.
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So let's think about where we are today.
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The rate of change is accelerating faster than ever.
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We've looked at all the stats.
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I thought this morning's keynotes-you saw how quickly things are growing over
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the last few months.
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And we see LLMs is really driving huge volume in terms of traditional search.
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If you think of what comes from ChatGPT, Claude,
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it's 1.5 billion monthly visitors today.
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That's over half of Google's search volume. So you can just look at the line.
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You can see that quickly this would be the dominant way to search going forward.
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And it's not just about searching and asking random questions.
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It's actually driving real commerce.
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77% of the users are using this as search engine ChatGPT.
And
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64% of US shoppers, they bought something after they use an answer engine.
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So they're using this to get insights, information,
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and it actually does influence their shopping behavior. And that's a big change.
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We didn't have this two years ago. This is all obviously adopted very quickly.
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Now let's go into some of the initial kind of consumer highlights.
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We've done research over the last 12 months in the US about how are consumers
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using AI today and how they feel about it and what's going to actually get them
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to use it more. But this is actually a snapshot. In product discovery,
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do you use AI for which product categories?
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And the top one here is consumer electronics:
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60% of respondents said they use AI as part of their research and discovery
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process. Travel, 50%. Grocery and apparel,
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over 40%.
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So we see that there are certain product categories that are being part of AI's
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discovery, and that's going to be critical as we think about what happens next.
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The other stat I wanted to highlight is on the right side.
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64% of US consumers, they use AI-not just in one category,
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but three or more product categories.
So it's not just, "Hey,
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I only use ChatGPT to do research for my vacation." No,
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I'm actually using it for multiple product categories.
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And that shows that this adoption is going to start to grow across not just one,
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but across multiple categories in the future.
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Now, we talked about travel, right? Travel's a great use case.
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I want to go on vacation. I want to go to Portugal.
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I want to know how to get there, what flight, what hotel,
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should I have a travel, what kind of trip.
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But that's actually all that research you're doing with ChatGPT or Claude is
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changing how traffic actually happens today. So we looked at airlines,
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and this is actually JetBlue's.
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Their organic search traffic through traditional Google,
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traditional search engines is declining. It's declined 10% in the last year.
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But in the meanwhile, you think of all the AI engines-think of ChatGPT,
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Perplexity and others-they're growing 200 or 300%.
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So we say over time, consumers are going to start to really discover products,
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services,
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and really do that through LLMs in terms of how they think about the future.
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Now we're going to make this a bit interactive, right?
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We have a lot to cover today, but if you could pull out your phone,
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we have a QR code. It's also in the app.
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There's two questions we're going to poll the audience. And I will say,
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Stripe Sessions, you guys are very AI-forward.
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It's a very AI forward conference, but I'm very excited to see what you think.
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The two questions are:
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which purchase category would you trust an AI agent to complete entirely on your
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behalf? So you'll see a few different options. Pick which purchase category.
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Hey, that agent can do it fully autonomously. And the second question is,
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what are the barriers that you see preventing you from letting that agent
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transact? I mean, maybe many of you are like, "Okay,
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I'm good with agents." But are there some things that actually do worry you?And
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what actually concerns you about letting an agent purchase services and products
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on your behalf? So use the QR code.
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We're going to have some of the results towards the end of the session and
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obviously very excited to see what this group is thinking today.
Now let's go
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into a little bit more of our research. So we think about agentic commerce.
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There's different evolutions of a agentic commerce and the way we think of it is
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really the past,
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but there's like four evolutions of how we see this happening in the future.
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The past is, okay, I do my research, traditional merchants, go to websites,
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use Google. We think in the future,
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about 19% of consumers will still rely on that.
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They're not going to go use AI agents or LLMs.
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They're still going to do the kind of traditional way of doing research and
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purchasing products and services.
But where it gets exciting is we see a few
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evolutions. Evolution one is probably the most simple.
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I use ChatGPT as part of my discovery and kind of product comparison.
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We think 80% of consumers will start to use that in the future and they're ready
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for that. Evolution two is okay, not just product discovery,
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but we see that the agents actually able to do not just help me with discovery,
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help me to purchase. So actually they can transact on my behalf.
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We think up to 59% of US consumers can actually get to that stage.
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Now it starts to get exciting as we get to evolution three and four.
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Evolution three for us is, hey,
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the AI agents are actually working almost autonomously on their own to actually
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drive the transaction end to end. So from discovery in terms of selecting,
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in terms of purchasing, and obviously that becomes a true,
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almost very little human in the loop to get to that.
The critical thing here,
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we see 42% of consumers will actually let the AI agent do that in at least one
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product category. So 40% is a lot, right? There's still 60% that maybe not,
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but 40% is a material number. And the last evolution for us is evolution four.
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Here's the AI agent, not just does all the discovery, the purchase, selection.
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They actually will choose how to pay. They'll choose, okay,
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let's use this credit card, use this payment method, maybe they use Stripe Link.
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How do you get more rewards, more loyalty?
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They actually choose that on behalf of the customer themselves.
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That's about 25% we think in the future.
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So we looked at that from a customer lens, right?
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We've done our surveys with US customers over the last 12 months.
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But the question is, how does that impact dollars,
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actual ecommerce spend in the future?
And I think a few things.
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Based on our consumer research,
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we estimate that 55% of all US ecommerce could be agents-assisted and
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18% will actually be autonomous agents in the future.
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And that's obviously this spase is growing.
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It's $2.3 trillion of ecommerce spend today.
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55% we think reached that evolution one we talked through.
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32% of spend will actually be in evolution two. And the 18% evolution free,
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that is material. So 18%, but $0.4 trillion,
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that's a huge number and that number's just going to grow as you know,
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ecommerce has been growing every year.
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And this is a massive shift of how we think about ecommerce in terms of
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happening in the future. Now let's jump forward.
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We talked about it overall.
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Let's deaverage it based on what consumers are actually saying.
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It's not going to just be one or all my products I'm going to use agents for.
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It's going to vary by the product category. And so when we've done our research,
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the most likely ones to have early adoption are some of the simpler ones:
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household supplies, ordering food from restaurants, maybe on DoorDash;
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hygiene and beauty products.
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We see consumers are ready to test autonomy when it is likelihood of failure is
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low and the cost of mistake is low. And that's critical.
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I'm okay if the agent makes a mistake and gets me the wrong soap.
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It's not the end of the world. I could have some soap.
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So this is a critical thing in terms of early signals we see of where growth
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will come. And let's think about that.
So based on our research consumers,
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how they want to test it? They want to test agentic commerce safely.
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And we've asked consumers a few-what are the most important factors that get
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them comfort to give full autonomy to an agent? The number one factor,
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and this will be very critical as you think about your kind of customer
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experiences and what the customers you serve,
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50% said they want high familiarity,
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the brands or products they've purchased before.
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So if I bought that toothpaste in the past,
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I'm very happy for the agent to buy it. It's a very clear defined product.
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46% said, "Hey, if I can return it with a full refund,
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that also gives me full ability to actually trust the agent and I'm not going to
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have obviously bear the risk." 40% said low product prices.
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If the price is low,
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there's probably not a big issue if something goes wrong.
And 40% said if
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there's low downside risk. So I think a great example, I buy,
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the agent gets a wrong paper towel? Not a big deal.
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I could use a different paper towel. But if my agent buys the wrong couch,
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I think I'm going to be in trouble when I get home.
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So you really have to figure out what product category is that agent purchasing
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and that would drive your ability to trust it.
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Now we talked about the product categories. We talked about those factors.
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We see that a lot of these barriers to agentic commerce that need to be
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overcome, they're very emotional. They're tied to trust,
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they're tied to control, they're tied to privacy.
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And we think that the unlock to get there,
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payment safeguard is going to be critical. So we ask consumers a few things.
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If we look on the left-hand side,
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what do you think are the top reasons that make you hesitate to use an agent?
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The 50% of consumers say, "We just don't trust it.
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We don't trust the agent." The next biggest one is,
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"I don't want to give up control," 47%. A lot of consumers,
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they like to do it themselves. They want to do it end to end.
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They're not willing to give it up to an agent.
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Over a third of consumers also said they worry about data privacy.
Am I actually
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willing to let the agent do that? I worry about fraud.
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What's going to happen if something goes wrong, or the agent goes rogue?
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So those are real concerns that consumers have today. But on the flip side,
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we look on the right hand side,
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what features will help you get comfort and actually move that needle to get you
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to use an agent?
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The number one thing we heard from consumers is over 45% said, "Loyalty,
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points, cash back. If you could give me a better experience, better rewards,
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hey,
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that actually might get me to start using agent and actually that's a way to
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encourage me." The second one's fraud protection. If something goes wrong,
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for whatever reason, will you give me protection to protect me in that issue?
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And the third biggest one: free delivery, right?
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I'm okay if they buy the wrong product online,
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if I could have free delivery and also maybe return for free as well.
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If we have some of those factors that does get consumers over the hump in terms
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of the concerns on the left-hand side.
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Now let's talk about some of these examples a little bit deeper, right?
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This one's evolution three. This one I think is starting to emerge,
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but it could go a lot further. Let's talk about groceries. In groceries,
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obviously everyone buys, you go in person, you buy it online, you buy Instacart.
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What if your agent is now able to shop across all different grocers?
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And maybe you're shopping at Costco, you're shopping at Kroger.
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What if you ask your agent, "Hey,
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this is what I bought last week." It knows exactly what you purchased,
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how much and what quantity. It asks you,
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"Do you want the same items again this week?" And as you talk to the agent,
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it says, "Hey, no, maybe I move the pasta, move the onions.
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I don't need that this week.
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I already have enough." It does all of that for you and gives you the final cart
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details and say,
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"Are you ready to purchase?"
I would argue if you have the right experience and
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the right comfort, you will say yes. The agent could go,
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do all the work for me and I'll give trust to the agent and that's true value
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add. And groceries is a great example, right? High familiarity,
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tend to be lower ticket items,
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and those products aren't going to be like trying to choose between a couch.
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So this is a great example, but let's go a little bit more advanced. Okay.
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Groceries are simple, right? Buy milk, buy pasta. What about buying a car?
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Will I use agents to help me buy a car? I would argue yes,
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but it depends on the journey and there's different value adds you can see.
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There's two journeys here I'll kind of talk through. The top one, journey one,
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I have an agent, my personal agent. I want to buy a new car.
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I want to get some details about whether it's Volkswagens, BMW, Mercedes.
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Tell me about the models. Does it fit my lifestyle?
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Tell me all the details and the reviews.
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I want to have it all nicely put together and recommended based on what I need.
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The agent can do that. Obviously it could scrape websites,
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but what if the agent actually goes directly to the manufacturers and they have
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agents as well that can give them all the details they need to actually make you
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make the right decision of which kind of car do I want to actually try.
So
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that's journey one, right? Agent to agent there. Second journey. Okay.
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Now these are my top three cars. I actually want to go take it for a ride.
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Let's see how it is on the road. And in journey two,
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we have you talk to your personal AI agent and say, "Hey,
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reach out to these car dealerships. Tell me what's available for test drive,
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look at my calendar and actually book that appointment and tell me when I can go
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to a test drive against those three cars." Again, my personal agent,
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speaking to the dealer's agents, doing all that detail,
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and if I think of the olden days, it'd be me calling up, not answering,
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leaving voicemails is a huge hassle.
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What if the agent could just do that for you and suddenly it helps me pick the
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right car,
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helps me actually test out the car and maybe it actually makes a big difference
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in terms of huge value purchase.
So this is a great one.
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I think if you see agent-to-agent interactions,
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it doesn't have to be just micropayments.
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You can have agent-to-agent interactions across all use cases,
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and this is a great one I can say across all categories.
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But that said,
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there's a lot of focus on these micropayments and microtransactions,
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and that is unlocking new commerce models and agent to agent.
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So we think of the biggest use cases, high frequency, low value,
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the lesson is sent often some of these transactions.
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Think of paying per website, think of paying for API calls,
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think of compute time. We see agents starting to transact between each other,
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and it's phenomenal how that's starting to grow in terms of where the volume's
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going. But is this going to continue? I would argue yes.
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If you look on the right-hand side,
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there's some key trends that are going to drive the growth.
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Let's think of globally connected IoT devices.
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There are 21 billion IoT devices in the world today.
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That's going to double by 2030.
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So suddenly these devices actually need to be online and they can have agents
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tied to them in terms of how they transact.
Second data point:
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think of global traffic on the internet. 51% of that is automated.
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It's no longer humans only driving traffic. Over 50% is being driven by,
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ultimately could be by agents.
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And you can actually see that as that volume starts to grow,
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that opens up new futures for agents in terms of transactions and for commerce.
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And then one more page and then we'll get into some of our polling results.
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We talk a lot about like what's the experiences,
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what consumers will need to get comfortable.
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I would argue as retailers and merchants,
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they build their personalized experiences,
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they're embedding agents and they're going to add lots of value that's really
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unique to their different products, customers and services. Think of Walmart.
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Walmart now in the Walmart app, you can use Sparky.
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It's helping you with product discovery and argue that Walmart is preparing for
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an AI-first future,
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where now I can shop with an agent to help me in that full Walmart ecosystem.
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Let's look at Lowe's. Lowe's has a Mylow assistant.
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Mylow assistant helps me not just for purchasing and discovery-it actually gives
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me step-by-step product guides to help me in terms of the purchases that I do.
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And so it's really tied to the merchant, it's tied to the experiences,
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and this is how we think that merchants will win in the future.
Now we're going
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to switch over.
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I'm looking forward to seeing some of the results from the crowd today.
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So I'm going to introduce my colleague Gaurav. He's going to pull up, I think,
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the results,
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and then we'll save some time for some Q&A and some closing thoughts. All right.
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So our first question,
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"Which purchase category would you trust an AI agent to complete entirely on
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your behalf?" Okay, so grocery is 41%, travel is only 12. Okay.
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So grocery, food or beverage. So if you're shopping online,
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if you're using Instacart, if you're shopping in Costco,
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looks like groceries are going to be the one that use case we talked through.
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But I argue that this is just an AI agent fully autonomously.
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There's all different evolutions of how you can get agentic commerce to support
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the consumer.
Let's go to the second question.
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"What's the number one barrier preventing you from an agent transacting?" Worry
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the agent will get it wrong. Is that right? 32%. So mistakes is a concern.
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Don't want to give up control 20%.
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So some of the factors we talked about in our consumer research,
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it applies obviously for Sessions crowd here as well today.
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There's going to be a number of factors, but I think as you design experiences,
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you need to address how customers feel because ultimately they will not trust an
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agent unless you give them comfort that you have the right controls in place to
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support them in that journey. With that, let's go to some of the Q&A. I think,
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Gaurav, we should have maybe a few questions potentially.
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Yes. We do have a couple of questions.
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All right. First question.
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"Do you expect agent commerce be purely a mix of ecommerce or accelerated
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ecommerce volumes as a whole?" It's a great question.
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I think ecommerce has huge tailwinds and has also been growing very strongly,
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but I would argue that agents can also potentially assist you even in the
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offline world, right? As you think about that car discovery process,
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I still want to go try the car in person.
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I still want to actually do the research maybe online,
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but then actually go in person to a store.
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So I do think that ecommerce will continue to grow with all the tailwinds.
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If anything, it might make it easier for consumers to do more and more online,
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but it'll still be in- person purchasing that doesn't go away.
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Okay. Here's another question. Two likes.
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"Do you think that legacy companies should lead AI agents adoption or should be
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made by another type of actor?" That's a heavy question.
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So I would argue that we have to look at this by product category.
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We have to look at in terms of what is actually being done,
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whether it' through LLMs or through the merchant.
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If it's something like groceries-high repeatability,
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low tickets-like maybe that one is going to be one that can actually go faster
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with companies like ChatGPT and Claude.
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But I would argue that merchant agents have a real role to play, right?
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We talk about Lowe's, we talk about Instacart.
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They're building agents in their ecosystem,
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so I think that's going to proliferate across the industry.
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And the question is how do you differentiate your agent versus your competitors?
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All right, here's a third one.
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"How long BCG signals agentic commerce beyond fixed...
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consulting." Okay. I like that, into consulting. Oh,
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this is largely limited to the transactional use cases. It's a great question.
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I would say that agentic commerce,
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in terms of high value in services and some of the more traditional ways of
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commerce, I see less of a agentic commerce driving that,
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but I do think it's really just changing the way you work and the way you
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actually think about output. This is an interesting question.
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How is this going to impact even consultants?
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You could argue maybe you might need less consulting and help in the future.
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But I would argue with agents, with better intelligence,
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we can get answers faster, higher quality,
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and better value output with assistance of agents. So argue,
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I think we'll have to see how that actually transpires.
"Do you recommend
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companies to get their brands cited on ChatGPT?" Okay.
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I would say that what's critical, and we'll get to it in a couple of minutes,
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it is critical that you are able to have your products and services discoverable
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across all channels. It could be ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini,
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it could be for your own agent interfaces.
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I think you need to be building capabilities and experiences that will allow you
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to open up your aperture to all consumers based on how they want to transact.
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It's hard to predict the future, but I think ultimately,
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hopefully this gives you a sense of where things might be heading.
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So we covered a lot. Thank you for the polling results. Hopefully that was fun.
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There's four things I wanted to close as we think about today. The first thing:
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we think consumers are ready for agentic commerce, but trust is fragile.
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And I don't think the unlock says I need the best AI model in the world. Yes,
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better AI is helping and it's making a big difference. Everyone loves Claude,
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for example, but I think it comes down to better payment infrastructure,
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better fraud controls, better authorization logic and tokenization.
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Maybe my credit card details aren't being given to the merchant.
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I'm actually just given a token that the agent can use.
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I think the industry needs a safe autonomy layer to actually then adopt agentic
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commerce. So that's the first one.
The second is we talked about, okay,
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products and services, the discovery is moving to AI.
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You need to make sure your data is actually going to be machine-readable.
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So you need to change in terms of how you really open that up.
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So no matter how consumers want to shop,
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it is exposable to agents and LLMs in the future. Third,
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there's a bit of a reality check. Agentic commerce,
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there's lots of multimodel architecture.
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You need to really have openness in terms of standards and protocols you adopt,
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but you have to do that without slowing down your velocity of engineering and
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development.
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So how do you make sure you future-proof and open up across all the standards
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and protocols that have been rolled out?
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And the fourth and final thought for you:
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agentic commerce is not going to just happen in one big wave and one tsunami.
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I would argue it's category-specific and so should be your strategy.
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Thank you all.